Avian Flu - What we need to know

Has bird flu reached Europe?

Russia is investigating mass bird deaths in a region to the west of the Ural mountains in what could become the first case of the deadly bird flu virus spreading to Europe, officials announced yesterday.

But Russia's chief animal health official said a preliminary analysis had shown the deaths in Kalmykia may not have been caused by the dangerous virus that can also kill humans.

The Russian state health watchdog, in a statement posted on its website, said the bird deaths occurred on a farm in the Caspian region of Kalmykia 2,000 km from the region where Russia's first flu outbreak was reported.

[...] There was no final word on what had caused the Kalmyk deaths but Sergei Dankvert, chief animal and plant safety officer, said the birds may have died from an infection caused by parasitic worms.

[...] Separately, Interfax news agency reported that health officials were looking into mass deaths of ducks near a reservoir in the Sverdlovsk region which borders a number of regions hit by the virus.

Full story.

Russia update

Bird flu has spread west to the Ural mountains region of Chelyabinsk, officials said, making this the sixth region in Russia to be affected by the disease.

Sixty chickens died over the weekend in the village of Oktyabrskoye, the region's first deputy governor, Andrei Gasilov, was quoted as saying by Interfax news agency.

Russia's veterinary service confirmed the outbreak, but it was not yet known whether the strain of the virus in question was of the type that can be transmitted to humans.

Chelyabinsk is the sixth region affected. The others -- Altai, Novosibirsk, Tyumen, Kurgan, Omsk -- are further east in Siberia.

Full story from AFP. Here's a look at what to expect for the future:

Bird flu may spread to the Astrakhan, Rostov and Volgograd regions, Stavropol and Krasnodar territories in southern Russia this fall, the country's chief sanitary doctor said Monday.

"An analysis of bird migration routes has shown that the contagious A (H5N1) virus may spread from Western Siberia to the Caspian and Black Sea areas this fall," Gennady Onishchenko said in a letter to the heads of regional departments of the Federal Service for the Oversight of Consumer Protection and Welfare. "Some birds nesting in the affected regions (the Novosibirsk region and Altai territory) migrate to the above-mentioned areas for winter or stop there on their way to Africa or Europe."

Bird migration routes run through Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, Georgia, Ukraine and Mediterranean countries, where bird flu outbreaks are also possible, he added.

"The 2006 spring migration may result in a spread of the A (H5N1) contagious virus across European Russia because birds migrating from European Russia and Siberia have common winter nesting areas," Onishchenko said.

[...] He also said that the A (H5N1) virus had mutated and could infect people with fatal results.

Meanwhile, St. Petersburg’s Scientific Research Flu Institute announced it may have its own bird flu vaccine ready as early as November (via H5N1). The story provides an insight into the Russian version of "clinical trials":

The institute did not even look for volunteers to test the vaccine because usually employees of the institute test new vaccines on themselves, she added.

However, in the case of the bird flu the institute is working with a so-called inactive vaccine, which won’t harm the testers even if the experiment is unsuccessful. The worst that can happen is that volunteers may have allergic reactions.

Why bird flu will be hard to stamp out

A poultry factory representative said Siberian farmers did not want to part with their poultry. "They are hiding birds from vets in the forests, and are organizing improvised poultry-yards where the flu virus may remain for a long time," he said.

Here is the full and sad story.  This is one reason why culling and poultry vaccination programs will be less effective than is often advertised.