Professor Ferguson’s study, published in the journal Nature, examined the likely impact on Thailand of an outbreak of H5N1 flu that can be transmitted in this way. Data about the population, such as number of households, schools and businesses and travel patterns, were used to make predictions as accurate as possible.
In the model, one person in a rural village was infected with the mutant strain and began to pass it on. When nothing was done to contain this outbreak, it spread rapidly throughout the country, reaching Bangkok, the capital, within two months and then spreading abroad.
A year after the first case, about 50 per cent of Thailand’s 85 million inhabitants had been infected. The model did not estimate deaths as it is impossible to predict how lethal a transmittable strain will be, but even if it is ten times less deadly than the present virus, it would kill millions of Thais.
Professor Ferguson then considered what would happen if Tamiflu were given rapidly to everybody within a 5km (3.1m) or 10km radius of an infected person, and measures were taken to reduce contact by closing schools and workplaces.
These approaches will contain an outbreak, but only if Tamiflu is given swiftly, preferably within 48 hours of a case being diagnosed. Prevention must begin before more than 30 to 40 people are infected, and 90 per cent must take the drugs they are given.
Here is the link. Note that Thailand, or similar places, has not had the past facility to stop malaria, or even to provide clean drinking water to its rural populations. Measures of these kinds will limit deaths, and should be taken, but they are highly unlikely to stop a pandemic from spreading, should one get started.